A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
